The most-traded SHFE tin contract continued to rise during the night session, while trading in the spot market was largely stagnant. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on December 4, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2601) opened slightly higher in the night session and continued to rise, closing at 321,170 yuan/mt, up 3.82% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) US Treasury Secretary Besant’s advisor, Joseph Lavorgna, said on Wednesday that lower interest rates could eliminate the need for the 50-year mortgage proposed by the Trump administration. The idea of a 50-year mortgage aims to improve housing affordability. Lavorgna noted that the 50-year mortgage idea should not be completely ruled out, but he pointed out that it is a proposal by the Federal Housing Finance Agency to reduce monthly mortgage payments. He added that the problem with the housing market is high interest rates, as the US Fed is cautious about cutting interest rates. Lavorgna said, "If the Fed cuts rates, which I think they will, then we won’t need a 50-year mortgage, but I believe the Fed is moving very slowly and unevenly on this." (2) Micron Technology (MU.O) said on Wednesday that it will exit the consumer business. Amid a global shortage of key semiconductors, the company is increasing production of advanced memory chips for AI data centers. Micron’s exit from its consumer business comes against the backdrop of tight global memory supply chains, with semiconductors in tight supply—from flash memory chips used in smartphones to advanced high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI data centers. Micron stated that it will stop selling consumer-grade branded products from its "Crucial" division at global retailers, electronics retailers, and distributors but will continue shipments through consumer channels until February 2026. (3) According to the Passenger Car Association, from November 1–30, national passenger vehicle retail sales reached 2.263 million units, down 7% YoY but up 1% MoM, with cumulative retail sales this year reaching 21.519 million units, up 6% YoY; from November 1–30, national passenger vehicle wholesale sales reached 2.992 million units, up 2% YoY and 2% MoM, with cumulative wholesale sales this year reaching 26.766 million units, up 11% YoY. From November 1–30, national new energy passenger vehicle retail sales reached 1.354 million units, up 7% YoY and 6% MoM, with cumulative retail sales this year reaching 11.504 million units, up 20% YoY; from November 1–30, national new energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales reached 1.72 million units, up 20% YoY and 7% MoM, with cumulative wholesale sales this year reaching 13.777 million units, up 29% YoY.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply tightened in major producing regions like Yunnan. Most smelters were expected to maintain relatively stable production in December. (2) Demand side: Orders decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream procurement remained cautious, and high prices notably suppressed actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although the increase in AI computing power and growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remained small and insufficient to offset the consumption decline in traditional sectors.

Spot market: Trading stalled in the spot market. Most downstream and end-user enterprises adopted a wait-and-see attitude towards the continuously rising prices. Fewer orders were received this week, and the purchase volume was low. Some enterprises opted to use inventory for production, while others made just-in-time procurement in small quantities.

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